TL; DR

In our latest Trading Spaces:

• The Fed cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, Sept 17, 2025 — a widely expected move. Powell’s tone read “not in a sprint to ease,” and the dot plot implies room for more cuts this year, but not a flood.
• Long-end yields popped after the decision, a classic “hawkish cut” tell. Watch the 10-year as your macro risk gauge.
• U.S. equities ripped to fresh records; crypto bounced, then stalled. This is not the decoupling we wanted — yet.
• For crypto, momentum is mixed: majors failed to push through key mid-range levels; breadth in alts is trying (compression + bullish EMA crosses) but needs follow-through.

The 10-year Treasury macro tell (and why it matters)

The decision: –25 bps to a 4.00%–4.25% target range. Futures had it largely priced; the upside surprise (50 bps or ultra-dovish guidance) didn’t arrive. Powell emphasized caution and data-dependence. Markets now lean toward two additional 25 bps cuts in 2025, but participants are split — classic recipe for chop.

The tell: 10-year Treasury up, curve steepening. The 10-year yield rising likely signals that the market still has concerns about longer term inflation, which could be a headwind for risk assets. Keep that 10-year quote on your layout.

Meanwhile, stocks at highs (S&P 500, Nasdaq; small caps ripping) underscore that liquidity hopes remain alive — even if bonds are pushing back.

What we’re seeing on the crypto charts

Bitcoin (trend-following lens)

• Mid-range rejection: The level we flagged on prior streams rejected cleanly; no sustained momentum post-FOMC.
• Next spot to watch: Confluence of the 4h EMAs + prior swing-low cluster. First “reaction zone” for a constructive retest. Failure there opens a deeper sweep into range-low territory.
  

Ethereum (momentum check)

ETH attempted a push around the FOMC window, but failed to push above the weekly open. Market structure isn’t broken, just indecisive. We want either a swift reclaim above the cluster or a tagged retest lower with buyers stepping in.

Market breadth: TOTAL3 & “Others”

• TOTAL3 (crypto market cap ex-BTC & ETH) is boxed between prior ATH bands. Above = risk-on for alts; below = risk-off. While you can’t trade it directly, it’s a vibe check: it confirms whether alt strength is there or not.
• “Others” shows a similar picture: breakouts met the first big supply shelf and faded. Not a breakdown (yet) but it’s a battlefield.

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